Πρόσκληση για την υποβολή προσφορών για υπηρεσίες εξωτερικού αξιολογητή

ΠΑΡΑΡΤΗΜΑ

Evaluation methods and project indicators

Evaluation surveys are provisioned for each year and for each market measuring outcomes and results of the project in activities level both quantitative (expected outcomes vs actual outcomes and expected results vs actual results) and qualitative (cost vs outcomes and results, deviations occurred, additional results occurred, problems occurred and ways of handling etc). In the last year the evaluation analysis will include also results measurement in project level and impact assessment for each market. The external evaluator(s) which will be selected according to procedures described.

Impact assessment will be evaluated in the last phase of the project aiming at verifying achievement of the two anticipated results:

a)     the level of recognition of PDO/PGI logos in the three markets,

b)     the value of imports/sales from Greece (national level) and Emilia-Romagna (regional level) in Germany and Sweden

c)     the percentage of occasional drinkers in Italy (national level).

Project includes activities that will be addressing to a large audience of consumers. It will also address to the market and the specific target groups identified in section 2.1. In numbers, as presented, project audience pool is summing 61,000,000 Europeans identified as the key target group of consumers (32,400.000 Germans, 24,600,000 Italians and 3,900,000 Swedes). In Italy the audience pool for occasional drinkers is the group of 25-34 years old (7,200,000).This provides the opportunity to apply in annual bases, verification tools of the evolution of project’s expected results (increase of recognition level of Quality logo and wine drinking preferences) and project’s activities impact in their perception (familiarization) and their specific attributes on their attitude towards  products promoted

The methodology for this will be based on a specialized research conducted by the external evaluator within Y1 in order to verify current state in three levels; recognition, perception and knowledge. Specifically, a survey will be carried out with interviews among end consumers and market representatives and other stakeholders (expected sample size 2,000 questionnaires among consumers and market representatives for Y1).

The content of the questionnaire will include the questions used in the research from Eurobarometer including also questions e.g. correlation of Quality and Mediterranean notion with specific foods, preferable channels of receiving information, household spending on purchases, drinking habits, awareness on responsible drinking, or market oriented question tailored for representatives of the market etc. The evaluator will need to map the theory of change in order to track the progress occurred towards the final goal by setting a series of intermediate goals; prioritizes what will measure and the groups in terms of their influence, their opinion weight and in terms their credibility, choose level of evidence that is proportionate to the realistic size of the sample in order to track the extent to which the change has happened (using quantitative methods) and how the change happened (using qualitative methods), select sources and tools and in specific among (i) Surveys/questionnaires, (ii) interviews (iii) Social network analysis.

Via this research, the findings concerning the general image and will be cross compared with the levels of recognition, perception and knowledge as of the last Eurobarometer survey No 504 in each market, the data released regarding wine penetration in Italy from ISTAT or other latest relative publications. In addition it will facilitate mapping down actual image quantifying the empirical image (based on their knowledge on products) and image physiology (based on their update, image, their beliefs, etc.).

Surveys will be repeated in Year 2 and Year 3 in order to validate changes in each element (recognition, perception and knowledge, drinking habits) while other up to date sources (future Eurobarometer surveys or national surveys and public data) will also be taken in consideration.

In relation to the second expected result (increase sales/imports in Germany and Sweden) in order to measure the evolution occurred the value of imports from Greece (national level) of the specific products promoted and the value of wine imports from Emilia Romagna are the indicators and the data source will be the intra-EU statistics provided by EUROSAT and ISTAT (regarding regional wine sales). These two sources will be served in order to assessment in a quantitative (if the result was achieved) and qualitative (what was the contribution of the project in that change).

According to the last Eurobarometer survey recognition of Quality logos (PDO and PGI) is staggered; recognition in Sweden (4% for PDO and 8% for PGI) and Germany (8% and 13% respectively) is far below the EU average (14% for PDO and 20% for PGI). In Italy the level is higher that the EU average (21% for PDO and 27% for PGI) but still this is low considering the high number of Italian food and wines registered in the schemes. However the evolution is negative in the three markets; in Italy PDO recognition fell by 11% from 2017 and the PGI by 6%; in Sweden by 4% and 3% respectively; in Germany PGI recognition increased by 1% but PDO fell by 4%. This means that Europeans consumers in the three markets still do not have a clear understanding and are not convinced that the specific Quality Food System are sustainable; therefore the recognition levels are low compared with the total size of their food markets or the availability of PDO/PGI products.

If the project is not applied the historic recognition trend (HRT) is expected to continue at the same low pace. Perception of PDO/PGI products will not be improved as it will not be correlated with sustainability. It can be estimated that by 2025 the recognition by average in the three markets will be 12% far below the EU27.

If the project is applied a strong push will strengthen the perception of Europeans in the three markets; intensive publicity for a three years period on the correlation of sustainability and PDO/PGI Food Quality Systems will boost the expected recognition trend (ERT). This will result to an increase in the recognition by average in the three markets to 17.3%.

This +5.3% difference in the two trends is the informative return of the project; intensive publicity and dissemination towards the direct linkage of the two logos with sustainability to 61 million Europeans for three years means that the project can increase the levels of recognition of 3,200,000 more and better informed Europeans with obvious impact on the consumption of these products and a significant impact on the Sustainable Development Goals in each market.

For Italy the main facts that serve to estimate the impact of the project are the following:

In 2019 the wine consumption[1] in Italy was estimated to 54.2% of the total population while at the age group 25 – 34 was 56.4%. Sporadic wine consumption was estimated to 31.5% and at the specific age group 41.9% of total population, the highest among all age groups. This group also record the highest growth rate among all age groups. We see that both wine consumption and sporadic consumption has increased at the specific age. As the population at this age segment is 7,200,000 Italians, this means that 3,000,000 Italians are occasional wine consumers. The goal is be to improve their perception on wine consumption as a social responsible norm, in a balanced and moderate way as part of a sustainable way of life, by enhancing their knowledge on sustainable production and consumption. Therefore the informative return will be 3,000,000 better informed and social responsible Italians.

As for the increase on sales / imports in each market and the two level (national for Greece and regional for Italy) and in total the following facts will serve for our estimations:

–       In 2016 total imports from Greece in Germany of the products promoted summed EUR 281 million; in 2020 they summed EUR 350.3 million which give us a 28% 2020/2016 variation; 2020/2016 world imports variation (driven by intra-EU trade) was 8.9%.

–       In 2016 wine imports from Italy in Germany summed EUR 923 million while regional (Emilia-Romagna) were EUR 88.1 million representing 9.55% of total imports from Italy; in 2020 figures were EUR 1011 million for Italy, and EUR 96 million for Emilia Romagna an a same share as % of total imports from Italy. The 2020/2016 national variation was 9.5% while regional variation was 8.9%

–       In Sweden total imports from Greece of the products promoted summed EUR 41.4 million in 2016; in 2020 they increased to EUR 50.2 million which give us a 21.3% 2020/2016 variation; 2020/2016 world imports variation (driven again by intra-EU trade) was 4.3%.

–       In 2016 wine imports from Italy in Sweden summed EUR 154.6 million while regional (Emilia-Romagna) were EUR 0.89 million representing 0.6% of total imports from Italy; in 2020 figures were EUR 163.5 million for Italy, and EUR 2 million for Emilia Romagna representing 1.2% of total imports from Italy. The 2020/2016 national variation was 5.8% while regional variation was 128%.

If the project is not applied we assume that, without taking in consideration the potential impact on the imports for 2021, the Historic Growth Trends will be as following:

–       In Germany, Greece will continue to grow but with a growth rate following the world trends but again higher dynamics (14%) therefore by 2025 the value of Greek exports of the products promoted will be EUR 399.8 million. As for Emilia Romagna’s wines again they will continue to grow with the same rate (8.9%) reaching EUR 104.5 million.

–       In Sweden, imports from Greece again will manage to maintain the dynamics but a small growth rate is expected (10.7%). As for the regional wines although the dramatic 2020/2016 variation they are expected to follow the national growth trend reaching EUR 2.12 million by 2025.

–       In Italy wine sales of PDO/PGI wines in 2020 were estimated to EUR 1.748 billion increasing with a 4.2% annual growth rate since 2016.[2] Since Emilia Romagna represents 11% of Italy PDO/PGI wine production, the regional wine sales in national level can be estimated to EUR 192 million. If the history trend continues then Emilia’s Romagna wine sales in Italy could reach EUR 240 million.

If the project is applied a boost on imports of the products promoted from Greece will occur as higher growth rates (18% in Germany and 15% in Sweden) will result to EUR 413.3 million for Germany and EUR 57.72 for Sweden. Higher growth rates of imports (15% in each market) will boost also Emilia Romagna wine sales to EUR 110.45 million in Germany and EUR 2.45 million in Sweden. In addition higher growth rates will be achieved in Italy (5%) therefore Emilia’s Romagna wine sales in Italy could reach EUR 244.4 million.

The difference derived from these trends in the economic return of the project translated to EUR 15.7 million new imports of sustainable food and wines from Greece and EUR 6.1 million new imports of sustainable wines from Emilia Romagna and EUR 4,4 million Emilia’s Romagna new sales in Italy.